Bitcoin spikes in value, prompting fears of a new bubble ...

New rule! Also are cryptocurrencies an investment, will there be a crash? Everything answered here!

This is going to be the only crypto post for now and an announcement:
Rule 6: Bitcoins & cryptocurrenies should be discussed in CryptoCurrency. Posts regarding this topic will be automatically removed.
If there's a stock correlated with cryptocurrencies, like coinbase going IPO, then that's fine, you might have to message the mods after posting to have it approved, no big deal.
Also if you're questioning whether something is an investment or not, just search for it on personalfinance. For general currency trading strategies, see forex .
If you're wondering if bitcoins are an investment or if there will be a crash, read on.

Are cryptocurrencies an investment?

This post is going to deal with bitcoins & cryptocurrencies as an investment... they're more speculative. All currencies are speculative mostly due to how the forex market works, but more because of exchange rates between countries keep currencies balanced (including inflation, country debt, interest rates, political & economic stability, etc), so you can only profit in price fluctuations.
Sure you could buy the currency of a depressed country, like Mexico decades ago, and then hold in the hopes it'll go up (which it did for Mexico), but that's also speculation (no one knew Mexico would pay off so much debt).
Bitcoins are also affected by other countries' currency values, but more so by the future expectation of legitimacy, world wide adoption, limited gains from mining, and eventual limit in supply. But at any given moment the United States could pay off more debt, raise interest rates to reduce inflation (or cause deflation), grow GDP, or even reduce the supply of USD all of which would increase the value of USD (keep in mind bitcoins can't do any of these things).
Far too many people are treating cryptocoins as an investment because currently (June 5th 2017) a lot of crypto investors are worth a lot of money, god bless you people, so this post will also help you determine if we're headed for a crypto crash and maybe you can keep those profits.

Should I invest in cryptocurrencies?

Understand that an investment is something you hope will go up in the future or provide income, both of which for the long term vs speculation which profits on short term inefficiencies.
Speculative securities are typically commodities, options, bonds, and currencies, but also stocks that are volatile enough to give you extreme returns or extreme loses.

Examples of investments:

Examples of speculation:

Reducing the risk of speculation

Typically for speculation you reduce risk by reducing your trade size and timeframe, but since you're trying to invest into something that is speculative, you can try:
Asset allocation, a strategy that reduces risk.. If you're 80% stocks, 15% bonds, 4% gold, and 1% bitcoins, if something were to happen to bitcoins, you still have 99% of your money.
But even very aggressive long term portfolios leave speculation out completely and just go 100% stocks because stocks benefit from growth while speculative securities like gold benefit from global turmoil in the short term. Only mid risk & mid term portfolios can take advantage of gold's speculative returns.
I also mention asset allocation because many crypto investors have been using this strategy on a portfolio of 100% crypto coins, but that doesn't help you reduce the overall risk of crypto coins, you're just reducing the risk of 1 speculative asset with another speculative asset. 100% crypto portfolio would face the same risks such as being made illegal, IRS aggressively hunting down crypto profits, a drop in correlated coin markets, or just a loss of popularity would all cause a sell off. Even the USD or Chinese currencies becoming more valuable would reduce the value of crypto coins.

Should I buy coins right now?

Cryptocoins are a better investment after a period of consolidation when volatility has stabilized:

Bitcoin 2013/2014 speculation, chart

Bitcoin 2015 consolidation, chart

Source Bitstamp exchange, while the volume is #2 to GDAX, Bitstamp is better to look at for historical price/data, more charts here.

RSI & MACD key for above charts and primer

Analyzing overbought signals

So the first chart above have RSI & MACD screaming that bitcoin is overbought and you shouldn't invest in 2013/2014.
The black squares in the 2nd chart show consolidation and reduced volatility, a "better" time to invest. If you were trading short term, it would be a whole different story, and there would be opportunities to buy & short, but since this is written for investing, the small overbought signals are ignored, so if you were to buy Bitcoin at $300 inside the first blacksquare (2nd chart) and then it suddenly drops to 25%, it's okay because the volatility is much lower compared to previous price movements (nothing compared to 80% loss in the 1st chart). Any investor would tell you a 25% drop is terrible, but bitcoins are speculative and that kind of drop is pretty damn good for this level of volatility.

Nothing goes straight up forever

and anything that comes near this vertical incline will eventually lose 80% to near 100%, always happens, it's usually preceded by emotions (price euphoria), attention, and increased volume, all classic signs that something is becoming riskier.
Other speculative securities gaining multiples and then losing 80% to near 100% of value:

Notable comments on reddit:

*This is just to get you guys looking at different subs on this topic, and yeah it's mostly anti-crypto, but don't let that discourage you.

Is Bitcoin going to crash?

Maybe, the signals are getting louder, you tell me: The only chart you wanted to see this entire time.
So based on the above chart, is bitcoin overbought? MACD levels are the same as 2013's crash, but the increased in value is around 4.3x or 2.4x (depending on which you look at), so maybe we'll see another spike before a crash, I don't know, it's up to interpretation right now. There's the emotional price levels of 3000 and 4000 that we might have no problem getting to in an overbought environment before a correction. And how big will the correction be? I think 80%, but it very well could be around 50% down to $1200, the previous level of resistance which would become support.
I put everything above in its own wiki here.
Well I hope that helps everyone. Sorry to anyone that may feel butthurt on classifying cryptocoins as speculation, I hope you understand the facts. Feel free to argue or agree with this. If I made any mistakes and you point them out, I'll correct them and give you credit for it in an update to this post and the wiki.
Also the automod will is just going to blanket remove posts (not comments) with the following keywords {crypto, bitcoin, btc, etherium, altcoin} (see update 4 below) (this will eventually get relaxed if Coinbase ever IPOs) and then it'll send the user this message:
"Sorry your post[link] was removed in stocks because of rule 6: Bitcoins & cryptocurrenies should be discussed in CryptoCurrency. You can find more information in our are-cryptocurrencies-investments wiki. If you're trying to discuss a non-OTC stock related to cryptocoins like Coinbase IPO, or this was just a mistake, message the mods and they'll approve your post, thanks."
Update: Created wiki, added relevant websites and sub reddits. Also turned on automod reply.
Update2: those relavant websites and subreddits I put into the wiki, thanks u/dross99 for recommending ethereum

Relevant websites/wikis

Relevant subreddits

  • CryptoCurrency - main sub to learn about all bit & altcoins
  • ethtrader - trading eth
  • ethereum - for more eth information
  • btc - the place to have bitcoin discussions or r/CryptoCurrency; while Bitcoin does have a lot of information on Bitcoins in general, you'll find many reddit subs completely opposed to Bitcoin for heavy censorship of discussions, especially those critical of bitcoins, so you're better off reading the sub's wikis and discussing bitcoins in btc & r/CryptoCurrency
  • personalfinance
Update3: Shoutout to the mods on CryptoCurrency
Update4: Updated auto mod keywords, it's not a blanket catch all, a little completed to understand if you don't know regex but it looks like this
"crypto ?(trading|investing)","(should(| I)|could(| I)|can(| I)|how to|is it worth) (buy|sell|mine|min)(|ing) (btc|btcs|bitcoin|ether|etherium|eth|litecoin|ripple|altcoin)" 
submitted by provoko to stocks [link] [comments]

The alt-right is creating its own dialect. Here’s the dictionary - by Nikhil Sonnad, Tim Squirrell (Quartz) 30 Oct 2017

Vocabulary pop quiz. Define the following words: “hypergamy,” “femoids,” “meeks.” If you got all of those right, you’re on your way to becoming fluent in alt-right. Perhaps you have 'redpilled' - become newly aware of the political and social situation around you - and are 'based' - someone who has a solidly anchored political outlook of an alt-right variety.
No political movement has created an internet dialect with the speed and scale of the alt-right. Comprised of conspiracy theorists, anti-feminists, white nationalists, Donald Trump supporters, and other disgruntled right-wingers, the loosely connected group has organically formed a shared way of talking that allows different factions to identify with one another. This creates a verbal badge of allegiance, and the terms they have coined can be difficult for outsiders to follow.
The alt-right isn’t the first group to create its own online lexicon: The internet has long been a place for linguistic invention. Gaming gave us “woot” and “noob.” We now use “troll” as a verb in regular speech. Some people even pronounce “lol” as if it weren’t an acronym. Many of these terms were first used by small groups of insiders in internet forums before the words broke out and were appropriated by the greater public.
We are seeing the same patterns unfolding on public message boards such as Reddit and 4chan. Before they turn mainstream, words like these turn an online community into a kind of exclusive club. In the case of the alt-right, people who can correctly use a term like “blackpill” belong; those who can’t, don’t.
Beyond creating exclusivity, jargon like this reveals concepts that a group feels are common and important enough to require a go-to word. There is no readily available term in English that means “women are robotic or sub-human”—a belief held by many alt-right “manosphere” members—so they created “femoids,” a disturbingly common term that refers to women as non-human. Likewise, there is no term that derisively refers to people who believe in social justice, hence the demonization of “SJWs,” an acronym for “social-justice warriors.”
In order for terms like these to gain traction, the community must recognize and accept them. Being willing to use this controversial, politicized slang signals to others that you share their same unconventional point of view. The more entrenched and insider-y these words become, the less likely it is that outsiders will engage with (or even understand) the group, leading to an even greater communication divide between the alt-right and left. Creating a dictionary for the alt-right
By dissecting the internet dialect of the alt-right, we can better understand the movement’s political motivations and views of the world. In order to begin to define alt-right-speak, how it spreads, and where it is used, we analyzed billions of Reddit comments to identify the terms that are being used across the alt-right’s online universe.
Instead of having a centralized home, the movement is split between various “subreddits,” which are topic-specific Reddit forums. We looked at six of the most common alt-right subreddits for our study. This sample spans a wide range of the new conservatism, from conspiracy theorists to “men’s rights” advocates and the most fervent red-state voters.
Conspiracy, where conspiracy theories are traded with the utmost seriousness
Incels, or “involuntary celibacy,” where men blame society for their romantic failings
KotakuInAction, home of the somehow-still-active #GamerGate movement, and where video games are discussed
MGTOW, or “Men Going Their Own Way,” where men decry feminism
CringeAnarchy, where users cringe at SJW artifacts around the internet
The_Donald, the biggest alt-right hangout, where serious Donald Trump supporters lurk
For each of these subreddits, we identified 50 words that were new and particularly distinctive to these communities. To determine the brightest of these rising stars, we searched the most recent two months of Reddit comments for the number of times a word appears in an alt-right-associated subreddit and compared it with average on the platform as a whole.
Our analysis reveals that many of these newly created terms cut across subreddits and other alt-right homes, revealing a perspective shared among different factions of the alt-right. It shows that people who read Incels are also reading The_Donald, and that there is overlap between subscribers to Conspiracy and KotakuInAction. It shows that the loosely organized groups that make up this movement—the shitposters, the anti-globalists, the misogynists, and many, many others—occupy the same slice of the internet.
For example, the emasculating term “cuck” is possibly the most prominent pan-alt-right coinage, appearing in the top-50 most distinctive words list for five of the six subreddits we looked at. “SJW” is next, appearing in that list for four of the six studied subreddits. Other overlaps include “chad” (Incels, MGTOW), “kek” (KotakuInAction, The_Donald), and “pill,” as in “black pill” and “red pill”, (Incels, MGTOW). This shows that the culture of these communities is not isolated.
To see how this jargon, and the identity around it, form online, we have assembled a preliminary glossary of the newest terms being used in the alt-right lexicon. We have included the etymologies of where and when they first appeared, how their meanings have changed over time, and how they have infiltrated other alt-right communities. The range of things that they describe, and the specificity of their definitions, shows how the alt-right is developing its own unique language.
Wrongthink
Origin: SRSSucks
Meaning: An idea or claim that is most likely true, but silenced by the powers-that-be on the “intolerant left.” Some examples include the idea that there are no intrinsic differences between men and women (particularly with respect to aptitude for certain jobs), the idea that there are “only two genders,” or the idea that immigrants commit more crimes and Islam is an inherently violent and misogynistic religion.
Etymology: Originating from George Orwell’s Nineteen Eighty-Four, this word was used along with “thoughtcrime” to describe ideas that are politically unacceptable to the all-controlling Big Brother. Before its current popular iteration, it first emerged in 2014 in the subreddit SRSSucks, an anti-political-correctness community dedicated to criticizing ShitRedditSays, which is itself a community revolving around critiques of things posted by other Reddit users. The alt-right’s ire for this community burns so intensely because of its strongly intersectional leftist culture, dedicated to calling out what is seen as the problematic behavior of other Redditors. The term was originally used in this context to denote the idea that SRS (ShitRedditSays) users were trying to create an Orwellian dystopia in which only a small subset of radical leftist opinions were acceptable.
“Wrongthink” exploded in popularity this year when Google engineer James Damore wrote a 10-page “Man-ifesto” that leaked and spread across the internet. The document, titled “Google’s ideological echo chamber,” argued that the reason for the over-representation of men in tech companies was that women were biologically unsuited to coding. He also believed that Google was sacrificing quality on the altar in its search to eliminate gender discrimination and bias within its ranks. Damore was fired by Google for writing the memo, and immediately became a martyr for the alt-right and subreddits like KotakuInAction.
These subreddits insist he was fired for “wrongthink.” In their eyes, Google is a left-wing safe haven in which “free thought” is not allowed, and Damore dared to speak out against the liberal shibboleth. The term stuck, and now it’s one of the most popular words in the new alt-right lexicon. (There was a slow increase in the use of the term even before Damore’s memo, but its popularity accelerated in the aftermath of the incident.)
Sample usage:
Goolag
Origin: Cult of the Dead Cow’s Goolag tool
Meaning: A portmanteau of “Google” and “gulag,” the latter being a kind of USSR-era prison that the enemies of communism were thrown into. It implies that the tech giant is a Stalinist dystopia that doesn’t tolerate thinking outside its left-wing ideological echo chamber.
Etymology: This term was used in niche parts of the tech community in 2008 when a hacker collective named Cult of the Dead Cow created Goolag, a tool that allowed people to use Google to indicate whether a site was vulnerable to being hacked.
After laying dormant for some time, the term exploded in popularity during the Damore controversy mentioned above. It emerged almost simultaneously in KotakuInAction and The_Donald, and it wasn’t long until Damore was photographed wearing a t-shirt on which the Google logo has been changed to Goolag. Time will tell whether it remains part of the alt-right lexicon a second time around, but The_Donald is making a serious effort at making it stick.
Sample usage:
Chad
Origin: Unknown, possibly 4chan
Meaning: Chad Thundercock—or just “chad”—is a derogatory name given to attractive men who are sexually successful with women.
Etymology: The origin of the meaning of “chad” is murky, but it was probably popularized on 4chan, the imageboard also home to the Anonymous hacker collective. It rose out of the depths of the internet around 2013 but only reached alt-right consciousness in the last year or so. (You might have seen the “virgin walk” memes floating around, for example.)
Today the place you’ll see “chad” most often is on the subreddit Incels, which is a depressing mix of self-loathing, self-pity, and misogyny. Chads are the ubiquitous successful object of envy for this community: attractive, smart, successful, and always lucky with women. The idea is used to reinforce the notion that celibacy is involuntary; incels think the only reason why women won’t sleep with them is because they don’t look like chads, as women are shallow and will always go for chads.
Sample usage:
The difference between Chad and non-Chad (Incel) is literally a few millimetres of bone from Incels
Meeks
Origin: Incels
Meaning: Men who are morally reprehensible but still able to have sexual success with women because they are physically attractive. The term is like “chad” on steroids: While a “chad” is a man who is sexually successful just because he’s attractive (but might not necessarily be a bad person), a meeks is a man who is sexually successful and disgraceful.
Etymology: “World’s hottest felon” Jeremy Meeks’ mugshot went viral after he was arrested for weapons-related crimes in 2014. The internet’s female populous swooned over this criminal, but the term derived from his name didn’t gain currency in Incels until mid 2017. It is meant to represent the ultimate truth: that women don’t care about men’s personalities at all, and an attractive felon is better than an unattractive “nice guy.”
The graph for the term is muddied a little by the existence of a popular college basketball player with the surname Meeks, but in May 2017, Incels overtook NBA to be the single biggest user of the term. The cause of this spike is likely due to a bot that is programmed to comment on the below messages whenever the word “personality” is used in the subreddit. The bot, programmed by one of the subreddit moderators, is meant to ward off interlopers who come to the sub looking to tell its denizens that they need to “work on their personality,” as well as to prevent users from trying to go against the accepted “blackpill” (see below) dogma of the community. “Meeks” makes an appearance in The_Donald and MGTOW, too, showing the cross-talk between different parts of the alt-right and the related manosphere.
Sample usage: Comment from discussion AutoModerator’s comment from discussion "Daily reminder that no one would give a fuck about you if you died in the Las Vegas Shooting".
Femoids
Origin: Incels
Meaning: A portmanteau of “female” and “humanoid” or “android,” this term is used to describe women as sub-human or non-human. Some incels go further and use the term “Female Humanoid Organism,” or FHO for short.
Etymology: Its first use came about on Reddit in March 2017. It’s unclear where the term originated, but it caught on quickly and now regularly appears in several hundred comments and submissions per week across the site. It appears almost exclusively in Incels and related subreddits such as IncelTears, niceguys, and justneckbeardthings. Watch out for it as the year goes on—it could spread further than this particular corner of the manosphere.
Sample usage: Comment from discussion dontcryimalreadydead’s comment from discussion "Should have known…".
Black pill
Origin: Omega Virgin Revolt, a blog
Meaning: An alternative to the popular blue pill/red pill dichotomy, which comes from the scene in The Matrix where Morpheus offers Neo one of two pills: the blue pill would allow him to continue to live in ignorance while the red pill would show him the world as it really is. In Reddit lore, the “blue pill” represents mainstream feminism, whereas the “red pill” is supposed to represent the anti-feminist truth: that men are really the most oppressed in society, and feminism is about female superiority rather than equal rights.
However, taking the “black pill” means seeing that the whole system is broken, and the only solution is to refuse to engage with it at all. This is in contrast with seeking to take advantage of women through psychological manipulation, as advocated by many of those in TheRedPill and PickUpArtist communities.
Etymology: The term “black pill” first showed up in a blog post on a site called Omega Virgin Revolt in 2012. The idea behind the term is that red pillers, who recognize the world as biased toward women and feminism as female supremacy, don’t go far enough.
“Black pill” (and “blackpill”) started turning up on Reddit in late 2016 and has seen a boom in use since then, primarily in Incels. However, there are significant pockets of use in 4chan4trump, The_Donald, altright (before the page was taken down in February), TheRedPill, and Conspiracy. Some of the incels’ idols are seen as having taken the black pill, most notably Santa Barbara mass murderer Elliot Rodger, who is often referred to (only semi-ironically) as “Saint Elliot” for having “martyred” himself to the incel cause.
Sample usage: Comment from discussion bigantennaemay1’s comment from discussion "The Real Blackpill".
Hypergamy
Origin: MensRights
Meaning: The act, by women, of marrying men who are socially “above” them, otherwise known as “marrying up.”
A common trope in the manosphere is that the “top” 20% of men (defined by attractiveness and social value) are competing for the “top” 80% of women. This has its roots in the economic Pareto principle, whereby 80% of your sales come from 20% of your clients. Men who aren’t in this top range believe they are ignored and need to be part of that 20% to avoid being seen as “undateable” by the majority 80% of women. Women who only want to date or marry that top 20% despite being in the bottom 80% themselves are described as “hypergamy.”
Etymology: The idea of hypergamy is an old one, coming from a translation of 19th-century Hindu law books where the Sanskrit term anuloma was used to denote marrying above one’s caste.
The term has been present on Reddit pretty much since its inception, with comments from as far back as 2010 in MensRights. The term has spread over time, and over the last year the most common uses were in subreddits like MGTOW, TheRedPill, Incels, and MensRights. However, there were significant uses in The_Donald, 4chan4trump, and KotakuInAction, showing that there is a crossover between the communities of mens’ rights activists, Trump supporters, GamerGaters, and the alt-right at large.
Sample usage: Comment from discussion [account deleted]’s comment from discussion "IF I Produced a Rap Album About Inceldom, Would You Guys Listen?".
Trumpire
Origin: Possibly The_Donald
Meaning: The set of subreddits dominated by Donald Trump supporters.
Etymology: The name potentially comes from this thread in which the author suggests that, since the SJWs have the “fempire” (the feminist empire of subreddits), they should have the “Trumpire.” This includes The_Donald, Mr_Trump, AskThe_Donald, and others.
The_Donald dominates its usage due to a bot that automatically removes posts in The_Donald that attempt to link outside of the Trumpire by saying, “Your comment has been automatically removed because you linked outside of the Trumpire.”
Sample usage:
GEOTUS
Origin: The_Donald
Meaning: Acronym for “God-Emperor of the United States.”
Etymology: A play on the Facebook group “God Emperor Trump,” which refers to the tabletop strategy game Warhammer 40,000, in which a dictator-like figure essentially governs for eternity. The term is used in part to rile Trump supporters by suggesting they literally want a dictator in the Oval Office, but whether the phrase is being used ironically is increasingly questionable. Used almost exclusively in The_Donald.
Sample usage:
TPTB
Origin: Conspiracy
Meaning: Acronym for “the powers that be.”
Etymology: This term is used primarily in Conspiracy to refer to powerful people who “pull the strings” behind the scenes, such as the Illuminati, New World Order, or the “Deep State.” It’s also a buzzword in The_Donald and makes appearances in KotakuInAction and a number of anti-capitalist subreddits. Its vocal presence in Bitcoin might seem surprising on face value, but it makes sense in light of the strong libertarian, anti-authoritarian, anti-government bent shared among many cryptocurrency enthusiasts. Perhaps most disturbing is its appearance in LasVegasFalseFlag, a new subreddit with just over 1,300 subscribers that purports to “encourage insightful dissent in pursuit of truth”—presumably the truth being that one of the most deadly mass shootings in US history was the product of a conspiracy.
Sample usage:
Transtrender
Origin: Conspiracy
Meaning: People who identify as transgender because it is trendy.
Etymology: This term first came to prominence during GamerGate in 2014, but it is enjoying a renewed lease on life in 2017 thanks to the resurgence of the alt-right and the accompanying “culture wars,” in which gender and the rights of transgender individuals are notoriously contested subjects. This can most recently be seen by the controversy surrounding transgender bathroom laws in the US. Primarily found on TumblrInAction, it can also be seen in the identity-politics-oriented wings of the alt-right such as KotakuInAction, CringeAnarchy, The_Donald, SRSsucks, and MensRights.
https://qz.com/1092037/the-alt-right-is-creating-its-own-dialect-heres-a-complete-guide/
submitted by FinnagainsAwake to CapitalistParadise [link] [comments]

Some thoughts on the LTC/BTC ratio, and alts during Bitcoin bubbles

I'm really pleased to see a subreddit like this. I frequent bitcoin, but only to keep up with the latest news. There is some decent discussion there, but it's not as focused or moderated like I'd hope to see.
I wanted to post some thoughts on what happens with alts during Bitcoin bubbles, with a focus on Litecoin. If this isn't the kind of discussion you're looking for, feel free to take this down.
Anyway, there is a lot of talk about Litecoin's price falling. Some blame it on ASICs, some on LTC's "lack of community". I don't agree with any of this, and think LTC still has potential and purpose.
This chart - https://www.tradingview.com/v/NKjsA6Mk/ - illustrates the LTC/BTC ratio. You'll see indications of where BTC passed its all time high from the previous bubbles, and also where it reached what was its high price for that bubbles. So, for example, the blue circle in November 2013 indicates where Bitcoin passed $266, which was its high from the April 2013 bubble. The pink line in November 2013 is where it hit ~$1200, its high from the Nov 2013 bubble.
LTC/BTC surges to a new high around the same time Bitcoin reaches its new peak in a bubble, followed by a long, slow down trend until its surge in Bitcoin's next bubble. What causes this, in my opinion, is people taking their Bitcoin profits and investing them across other alts. This happens at Bitcoins dollar price peak. So, the price of Bitcoin falls, while the price of the dollar value of the alts rise. This creates pressure on both sides of the LTC/BTC ratio leading to the massive spike (which was up to .05 on LTC last year).
I simply used Litecoin as an example, but if you look at charts you'll notice that PPC and NMC's ratio highs also came at the exact same time.
While this is interesting in terms of price movement, I also think it greatly affects new users of alt coins. With Bitcoin, you have usually around 5-6 months of a downtrend, followed by 2 months of a really exciting up trend. There will be a lot of people who buy at the top, but a lot will buy towards the beginning of the uptrend.
With Litecoin and other alts, you have a period of maybe only a few days where the price goes up, followed by a long, long downtrend until Bitcoins next bubble. You can see by the graph that in its history, LTC/BTC has only gone up since its creation. But its surges in price have always come in a matter of days. So unless you buy right before the very sharp spikes, you'll almost always be losing money as an owner of the alt. I think this has a very large affect on newcomers who jump in during the bubbles with no chance to come out on top unless they wait another 6 months.
I'm definitely expecting to see very similar patterns, and you can see now that LTC/BTC has already started falling. I personally plan to convert my Bitcoin to LTC a little after we pass $1200, but for those who trade Bitcoin, it can also help indicate the high of the bubble.
submitted by jtos3 to BitcoinThoughts [link] [comments]

"Bitcoin 2.0 - How Litecoin is Looking to Cash in on Crypto-Currency Popularity" - International Business Times

It wouldn't let my link the article since International Business Times is apparently banned from Reddit. I copied and pasted it for you.
" By Alistair Charlton | November 25, 2013 4:02 AM PST
Bitcoin isn't the only decentralised currency in town; litecoin is built on similar technology and is considerably cheaper - but is increasing in value just as fast. Alistair Charlton investigates.
Worth much less than bitcoin, but growing at a faster rate, popularity in litecoin is increasing. (RadioMundial)Worth much less than bitcoin, but growing just as fast, popularity in litecoin is increasing. (RadioMundial)
Bitcoin's surging value has made the crypto-currency incredibly appealing to those looking to make a quick buck. But widespread media coverage associating the currency with everything from pizza to space flights has driven its price up, putting purchasing even a single coin out of reach for many.
Thankfully for those looking to get involved in the area there are a number of alternative digital currencies into which 'real world' money like pounds and dollars can be exchanged - either to pay for goods, or in the hope that they too will see enormous gains in value, as bitcoin has this year.
While professional investors and economics experts will tell you to avoid bitcoin trading like the plague, the temptation to recreate a Norwegian man's good fortune of turning £15 of bitcoins into £550,000 in four years may prove too tempting for some to turn down.
The most prominent alternative is litecoin, a currency based on the same protocols as bitcoin and introduced by former Google engineer Charlie Lee in 2009.
What's the difference between bitcoin and litecoin?
The main difference between bitcoin and litecoin is the speed at which it can be mined. A block of 50 litecoins is mined by a combined network of miners every 2.5 minutes, whereas the same number of bitcoins takes ten minutes to extract.
Apart from the speed of mining, this also makes litecoin transactions faster, meaning payments for goods or services can be cleared faster than those made by bitcoin - an obvious benefit for retailers.
Another difference is in the total number of coins produced. Litecoin mining will eventually create 84 million coins - four times as many as bitcoin.
Although in theory this suggests litecoin is the cheaper, more plentiful silver to bitcoin's rare and expensive gold, since both coins can be divided into tiny fractions, a comparison to real world commodities is difficult to make.
One litecoin is currently worth around £6.27 according to LitecoinRates.com - significantly cheaper than bitcoin, which was worth £510 at the time of publication.
But where bitcoin has led, litecoin looks set to follow - the currency spiked in April just as bitcoin did and crashed in a similar way, before seeing huge gains through November. As bitcoin surged towards the $1,000 mark, litecoin grew at an equally fast rate, up from $0.05 at the start of the year, to a height of more than $10 by mid-November. Litcoin may only be returning small profits for now, but remember that bitcoin was worth less than $1 just a couple of years ago. Graph showing value of litecoin in US dollars since January. (LTC-charts.com) Graph showing value of litecoin in US dollars since January. (LTC-charts.com)
Why buy litecoins?
Other than amateur traders looking to turn a quick profit, many believe litecoin's growing value is being caused by investors looking to spread their funds across multiple crypto-currencies to protect themselves from bitcoin's volatility.
Richard Boase of crypto-currency website CoinDesk suggests the increase in value could be "investors trying to diversify their crypto-currency portfolios in an attempt to protect themselves from what many view as an inevitable crash after an historic high."
Boase adds that litecoin's sudden spike "may be coming on as investors and traders new to the crypto-currency scene discover a plethora of exotic financial instruments, or it may be the collective voices of the crypto-currency hardcore who lend their support to litecoin for ideological and technical reasons."
How do I buy litecoins?
Major exchanges like Tokyo-based Mt Gox are yet to embrace litecoin on the same scale as bitcoin, which can even be withdrawn from special ATMs. Mt Gox said in August it was working on introducing litecoin to its trading platform, but it is yet to do so.
Right now, the easiest way to buy litecoins is through litecoinlocal.org, which lists sellers who are local to you. IBTimes UK found three sellers in London looking to sell between £1 and £2,000 worth of litecoins for between £7.79 and £10.18 per coin.
Due to the lack of participation from the major exchanges, litecoins are more difficult to come by, with most exchanges running out as soon as the currency is made available, but those who have invested believe anyone interested in the currency should be patient and keep trying while the price is still low.
No one knows what will happen to litecoin - in theory it should be no more stable than bitcoin, and many investors will likely get burnt - but as the US and European countries continue to investigate and accept these crypto-currencies, it is unlikely they will disappear any time soon."
submitted by _r_CryptoMarkets to litecoin [link] [comments]

"Bitcoin 2.0 - How Litecoin is Looking to Cash in on Crypto-Currency Popularity" - International Business Times (LTC crosses $10.50 on BTC-E)

It wouldn't let my link the article since International Business Times is apparently banned from Reddit. I copied and pasted it for you.
" By Alistair Charlton | November 25, 2013 4:02 AM PST
Bitcoin isn't the only decentralised currency in town; litecoin is built on similar technology and is considerably cheaper - but is increasing in value just as fast. Alistair Charlton investigates.
Worth much less than bitcoin, but growing at a faster rate, popularity in litecoin is increasing. (RadioMundial)Worth much less than bitcoin, but growing just as fast, popularity in litecoin is increasing. (RadioMundial)
Bitcoin's surging value has made the crypto-currency incredibly appealing to those looking to make a quick buck. But widespread media coverage associating the currency with everything from pizza to space flights has driven its price up, putting purchasing even a single coin out of reach for many.
Thankfully for those looking to get involved in the area there are a number of alternative digital currencies into which 'real world' money like pounds and dollars can be exchanged - either to pay for goods, or in the hope that they too will see enormous gains in value, as bitcoin has this year.
While professional investors and economics experts will tell you to avoid bitcoin trading like the plague, the temptation to recreate a Norwegian man's good fortune of turning £15 of bitcoins into £550,000 in four years may prove too tempting for some to turn down.
The most prominent alternative is litecoin, a currency based on the same protocols as bitcoin and introduced by former Google engineer Charlie Lee in 2009.
What's the difference between bitcoin and litecoin?
The main difference between bitcoin and litecoin is the speed at which it can be mined. A block of 50 litecoins is mined by a combined network of miners every 2.5 minutes, whereas the same number of bitcoins takes ten minutes to extract.
Apart from the speed of mining, this also makes litecoin transactions faster, meaning payments for goods or services can be cleared faster than those made by bitcoin - an obvious benefit for retailers.
Another difference is in the total number of coins produced. Litecoin mining will eventually create 84 million coins - four times as many as bitcoin.
Although in theory this suggests litecoin is the cheaper, more plentiful silver to bitcoin's rare and expensive gold, since both coins can be divided into tiny fractions, a comparison to real world commodities is difficult to make.
One litecoin is currently worth around £6.27 according to LitecoinRates.com - significantly cheaper than bitcoin, which was worth £510 at the time of publication.
But where bitcoin has led, litecoin looks set to follow - the currency spiked in April just as bitcoin did and crashed in a similar way, before seeing huge gains through November. As bitcoin surged towards the $1,000 mark, litecoin grew at an equally fast rate, up from $0.05 at the start of the year, to a height of more than $10 by mid-November. Litcoin may only be returning small profits for now, but remember that bitcoin was worth less than $1 just a couple of years ago. Graph showing value of litecoin in US dollars since January. (LTC-charts.com) Graph showing value of litecoin in US dollars since January. (LTC-charts.com)
Why buy litecoins?
Other than amateur traders looking to turn a quick profit, many believe litecoin's growing value is being caused by investors looking to spread their funds across multiple crypto-currencies to protect themselves from bitcoin's volatility.
Richard Boase of crypto-currency website CoinDesk suggests the increase in value could be "investors trying to diversify their crypto-currency portfolios in an attempt to protect themselves from what many view as an inevitable crash after an historic high."
Boase adds that litecoin's sudden spike "may be coming on as investors and traders new to the crypto-currency scene discover a plethora of exotic financial instruments, or it may be the collective voices of the crypto-currency hardcore who lend their support to litecoin for ideological and technical reasons."
How do I buy litecoins?
Major exchanges like Tokyo-based Mt Gox are yet to embrace litecoin on the same scale as bitcoin, which can even be withdrawn from special ATMs. Mt Gox said in August it was working on introducing litecoin to its trading platform, but it is yet to do so.
Right now, the easiest way to buy litecoins is through litecoinlocal.org, which lists sellers who are local to you. IBTimes UK found three sellers in London looking to sell between £1 and £2,000 worth of litecoins for between £7.79 and £10.18 per coin.
Due to the lack of participation from the major exchanges, litecoins are more difficult to come by, with most exchanges running out as soon as the currency is made available, but those who have invested believe anyone interested in the currency should be patient and keep trying while the price is still low.
No one knows what will happen to litecoin - in theory it should be no more stable than bitcoin, and many investors will likely get burnt - but as the US and European countries continue to investigate and accept these crypto-currencies, it is unlikely they will disappear any time soon."
submitted by _r_CryptoMarkets to CryptoMarkets [link] [comments]

Musings on Bitcoins, and a comparison with gold (long)

Musings on Bitcoins, and a comparison with gold.

[[ Edit #1 - in the 2 days since I wrote this, BTC has gone up to $226 USD - abut 40% - I'm leaving the numbers as written, as I thinkt he point still holds ]]
Full disclosure: I recently bought $200 USD worth of bitcoins (April 7 2013), near the current price peak at about $159 USD / BTC. This is either the smartest or stupidest $200 I've spent, and only time will tell which. By my purchase, I guess that makes me "bullish" on the long term prospects of Bitcoin. I'll try to not let that color my analysis below.
This analysis is not intended to be extremely precise. I'm trying to ballpark numbers here for a sense of scale and future possibilities. Feel free to correct any errors you may find, but if they don't qualitatively change the sense of the results, I'm not really interested, given how rough some of my estimates are.

Assumptions:
1) Bitcoin will be around for the foreseeable future, and not succumb to any of the obvious existential threats it faces (e.g. Majority network control by an attacker, governments squash all legal interchange with fiat currencies, users and merchants become completely disinterested, etc...) If this assumption is false, the rest of the analysis doesn't matter. Bitcoins will effectively be worth zero. This is a distinct possibility, a total bust, which I choose to ignore here, as it is uninteresting.
2) While not a perfect fit, Bitcoin will (in the long run) behave much like gold does today, as both a commodity and a currency. Bitcoin shares a number of obvious qualities with gold. While gold has some intrinsic utility (value) which Bitcoins lack (in both decoration and electronics manufacture), Bitcoin has advantages as a currency and commodity in its ability to be transmitted electronically world-wide, and to be easily and arbitrarily subdivided. Ultimately, and historically, gold has had the majority of its value derived from the qualities it shares with Bitcoin (e.g. limited supply, difficulty to counterfeit, resistance to government manipulation, etc...) As such, it seems like a good proxy to gain some insight into the possible future of Bitcoin.
3) We may be able to predict some sort of future bitcoin value ranges based on what we know of gold, and how it has been priced vs fiat currencies, currently and historically. I'll focus specifically on the stability of gold's price when US dollars were exchangeable for gold, vs the rise when dollars were no longer redeemable for gold (1971).
4) Just as gold didn't stop the rise of fiat currencies, but rather continues to exist alongside them as an alternate store of value, so to will Bitcoin. Fiat currencies are very useful for (as well as abusable by) modern governments, and as such will continue. Gold hasn't destroyed fiat currencies in day-to-day business, and I seriously doubt Bitcoin will either. Most folks don't transact business in gold any more. I expect the same to be true of Bitcoins. Bitcoin's existential threat to the government's ability to manipulate macro-economic monetary policy has been wildly exaggerated.
5) The current explosion of BTC prices is most likely a speculative bubble, but may be the start of a recognition of Bitcoin's potential to be a gold-like store of value. If so, BTC should eventually reach parity with gold, proportionally scaled to the amount of each available,

with each occupying a similar place in the global economy.

Raw numbers to play with:
5.5 billion troy ounces (171,300 tonnes) of gold mined in all of human history as of 2011
2,700 tonnes world production in 2011 (approx 1.5% increase in world supply / year)
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold
$1600 / oz - approximate price of gold April 2013 $160 / BTC - approximate price of BTC April 7 2013
$20-$40 / oz - historic gold cost while USD exchangeable for gold (until 1971)
Source: http://www.nma.org/pdf/gold/his_gold_prices.pdf
11 million bitcoins mined as of April 2013 21 million bitcoins max - estimated mined out by 2140
$16 trillion - US Gross domestic Product

http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/gdpnewsrelease.htm

Discussion:
From the number section above, as of April 2013... $8.8 trillion USD for all the gold in the world $1.76 billion USD for all the bitcoins in the world 500 ounces of gold in the world per bitcoin
If the BTC economy were equivalent to the gold economy today, the nominal BTC price would go up by a factor of 5,000 (500x as many ounces as bitcoins, at 10x the price each). That would yield a price of $800,000 / BTC. That's quite a potential upside, but assumes the total quantity of bitcoins today were as valuable as the total quantity of gold. A dubious proposition at best. Let's call this a hypothetical upper bound on BTC future value in today's money, as I really doubt bitcoins will ever replace gold.
Given that US GDP is only about twice the value of the current world gold supply, you could double the number above ($1.6 million / BTC) if you wanted all the bitcoins to stand in for all the economic activity of the US in one year. If you did that, one "satoshi" (10-8 BTC - the smallest subdivision) would be about one US penny.
Let's make a bunch more unfounded assumptions, and see what else happens. ;-) Let's assume gold is continually mined and the supply increases 1.5% / year (at the 2011 rate) for the next 127 years until 2140.
That would give us 36.44 billion ounces of gold (about a 6x increase) if compounded annually, or 16.5 billion ounces (3x, if not compounded and we just keep pulling the same amount out).
In that same time, we will have 21 million total bitcoins (2x increase) as we mine out the last one.
From this we can see that, if the value of bitcoins and gold derived solely from their scarcity, the intentionally deflationary nature of bitcoins would outpace gold in relative value over the next century. So, how fast has gold been appreciating historically vs Bitcoins?
Let's look at some history.
The bitcoin price graph is noisy, and there isn't much history (relatively speaking) so these numbers are all pretty rough.

Notable dates:

January 3, 2009 - Genesis block established July 12, 2010 - BTC crosses the $0.01 (one cent) USD mark. Feb 9, 2011 - BTC reaches the $1 USD mark. Jun 2, 2011 - BTC reaches $10 Source: https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/History
From the one cent point to $160 / BTC today (April 7 2013) is about 14 doublings (214= 16384 cents, or about $160) of value in 33 months. That's an insane 32x growth year over year. Going from the $1 mark to today would be about 7.5 doublings in 26 months. That's still a 12x growth year over year. From the $10 mark, that's 4 doublings to $160 in 22 months.
From $0.01 - to $160 - 2.35 months doubling period From $1.00 - to $160 - 3.46 months doubling period From $10.0 - to $160 - 5.5 months doubling period From $0.01 - to $10 - 1.1 months doubling period
The first three sets of numbers, of course, include the current spike/bubble from the beginning of 2013. But even the range from $0.01 to $10.00 (ten doublings, factor of 1024 growth) took only 11 months. The current 2013 spike went from approximately $20 at the beginning of January 2013 to $160 at the beginning of April. That's been three doublings in 3 months. Clearly, the current rate is unsustainable. If it were sustained, however, the BTC economy would reach the earlier mentioned level of the gold economy in roughly a bit over 3 years, giving us an $800,000 bitcoin. Let's call that the "ridiculously bullish upper bound scenario."
Let's look at gold's rise, after it was uncoupled from the dollar in 1971 (e.g. the "Nixon Shock")
We went from $40 for an ounce of gold (a relatively steady value for over 100 years) to $1600 in 42 years. That's 8.5 doublings in 42 years, or a doubling period of 5 years, or 60 months. An online inflation calculator says that only 2.5 of those doublings should be accounted for by inflation ($40 in 1970 buying the same bag of goods as $235 in 2012), so let's call the "I want gold for it's own sake" rate to be closer to 6 doublings in that time, or a doubling period of 7 years, which is 84 months. Even after we account for inflation, that is still about a 10% year over year appreciation. That may be close to the bitcoin steady-state rate, after all the hype has passed.
Over its short 4+ year history, Bitcoin's doubling period is 10x - 60x faster than gold's over the past 42 years. If I'm correct and Bitcoin will, in its maturity, resemble gold for its financial characteristics. 10% appreciation per year will be closer to the norm than the current, insane, 200% - 1000+% we are currently seeing.
So where does this leave us? Gold, while widely accepted, makes a lousy currency in practice. You can't effectively buy things online, or at the corner market for gold. In most cases, you have to trade it in for fiat currency to actually buy things. As a commodity, it does a much better job. Because of it's commodity qualities, it works well as a store of wealth, and is relatively easily convertible into various fiat currencies. Bitcoin would seem to share all of those qualities with gold, and in addition, is accepted by at least some merchants directly online for goods and services already, and that number is growing.
Ultimately, that, I think, will be the key. If merchants widely accept bitcoin directly, and/or it is at least as easy for consumers to convert bitcoins to fiat money as it is to convert gold, bitcoin should have a gold-like future.
I don't believe bitcoin will become the currency of the global masses. Gold certainly hasn't, and it has had a much longer time to try and claim that place. Fiat currency is too useful a tool to give up, and most of humanity doesn't own gold, and if they do, they don't buy things with it directly. Bitcoin will be no different. Further, one needs computer access to transact in bitcoins. While more and more of the world becomes connected every day, there are still vast numbers of people with no computer access (or water or shelter or bank accounts or...). Again, parallels to gold.
If we use a population figure of 7 billion for the world, and were to split the gold and the bitcoins up evenly, that would be a bit less than one ounce of gold per person, and a bit more than 1.5 thousandths of a bitcoin each. So if you have more than that already, you are ahead of the game, globally speaking. However, these numbers argue against either bitcoin or gold ever becoming a true "global currency."
The Global Wealth Report (http://www.cnbc.com/id/44956585) cites $231 trillion US dollars as a figure for total global wealth. That's $33,000 per person. From the numbers earlier, that means gold makes up only about 4% of that global wealth number, and recall that the collected value of all the worldwide bitcoins is less than a tenth of one percent of the gold wealth.
This 20 year old Straight Dope article is still relevant. It essentially says that "cash" in all it's forms is really small change in the global economy. Even upping Cecil's numbers a bit for 20 years, I think his premise still holds true.

http://www.straightdope.com/columns/read/719/how-much-money-is-there

Conclusions

Bitcoin will either be yet an other failed crypto-cash experiment, or it will become the de-facto standard Sci-Fi "credits" of the future. History suggests failure is the more likely outcome, but only time will tell for sure. Bitcoin has managed to anticipate and avoid many of the problems with previous systems.
Given it's deflationary nature, gold-like properties, and requirement for computer access to use, I do not believe it will ever become wide-spread in a world-wide population sense, but it may succeed in augmenting credit-card transactions for online "cash" purchases of goods and services. If it is wildly successful and widely adopted, it may reach a place of financial significance on par with gold at some point. Even then, this will still be a relatively small part of the global economy.
Given that half the bitcoins ever to be produced are extant right now, the total world supply will, at most, double. That's it. So, barring various fiat economic collapses in the future, whatever price we eventually settle on for a bitcoin's utility as a store of value in the near future (next few years? a decade?) should remain pretty constant (within a factor of 2). Markets and currency speculators will still cause wild price swings, but once it establishes a consensus "worth," that value shouldn't change much more based on supply, just on demand. Supply will be essentially fixed, but demand will be driven by utility (where can I spend it) and speculators.
We are currently (April 2013) in a massive speculative bubble, as "the market" tries to decide how much bunches of ever-harder-to-find hashes are really "worth," as a medium of exchange for goods and services. The success or failure of Bitcoin will be directly related to the network effect "lock in" as more merchants and users use it. If it catches on, its success will snowball. If not, it will tank.
submitted by Thespoian to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

Brace Yourself! Bitcoin Price Indicator Just Had A MASSIVE SPIKE to Extreme Fear - HERE'S WHY ANALYSTS PREDICT BITCOIN'S PRICE SPIKE  (IMMINENT) Bitcoin Price Spike in Rally. Is Bitcoin Bull Run starting ?  Bitcoin Price Charts Bitcoin Price History Racing Bar Chart ( 2013 - 2020 ... Bitcoin (BTC) Stimulus? Coinbase CEO Reveals Spike in Crypto Traders Depositing Exactly $1,200

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Brace Yourself! Bitcoin Price Indicator Just Had A MASSIVE SPIKE to Extreme Fear - HERE'S WHY

This is Bitcoin chart from 2013-2018. This feature is not available right now. Please try again later. Bitcoin Price Indicator Just Had A MASSIVE SPIKE to Extreme Fear - HERE'S WHY Altcoin Daily. Loading... Unsubscribe from Altcoin Daily? Cancel Unsubscribe. Working... Subscribe Subscribed ... Bitcoin Price Spike and Surge in Rally. Is Bitcoin Bull Run starting ? On the 2nd of April , there was a 15% + bitcoin price spike. The Bitcoin Price spike shown on the bitcoin Price Graph shows ... #Bitcoin (BTC) Stimulus? #Coinbase CEO Reveals Spike in #Crypto Traders Depositing Exactly $1,200 Narrated by The #Cryptocurrency Portal on Saturday April 18th. 2020 We send out daily up-dates ... Bitcoin U-SHAPE EXPLOSION TO $10,000 NEXT? ️LIVE Crypto Analysis TA & BTC Cryptocurrency Price News - Duration: 28:44. Crypto Kirby Trading 14,910 views 28:44

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